İŞİD-in azərbaycanlı gəlinləri


Suriyanın İslam Dövləti qrupunun nəzarətindəki son istehkamından evakuasiya edilən insanların çoxunun qrupun döyüşçüləri ilə qohumluğu var. Suriyada ekstremist yaraqlıların dul qalmış arvadları və uşaqları xaricilər üçün xüsusi düşərgədə saxlanılır.

Amerikanın Səsinin bu yaxınlarda Suriyanın Əl-Hol düşərgəsinə baş çəkən müxbiri Mutlu Çiviroğlu oradakı qadınların vəziyyəti ilə tanış olub.

O düşərgədə heç də hər kəs bu işə könüllü, ürəkdən, ixtifar hissi ilə qatılmayıb.
Mutlu Civiroğlu

O, düşərgədə qeyri-insani durumun, çirkablıq və qeyri-sanitariyanın hökm sürdüyünü deyib. Uşaqların vəziyyətini açınacaqlı adlandıran Çiviroğlu hökumətləri onları qəbul etməyə çağırıb. Müxbir qadınların, xüsusilə Avropa ölkələrindən gələn qadınların hökumətlərinin onları qəbul etmək istədiyini bildirib.

Adının Ayişə olduğunu deyən azərbaycanlı qadın həyat yoldaşı ilə birgə Suriyaya getdiyini deyib. Həyat yoldaşının Kobanyada öldürülməsindən sonra bu düşərgəyə sığınan Ayişə düşərgədə yaşanan çətinlikləri haqda da danışıb.

Anasının xristian, atasının şiə olduğunu deyən digər bir azərbaycanlı qadın anasının onu qəbul etmək istəmədiyini bildirib.

Mutlu Civiroğlu iki həftə öncə 14 yaşlı azərbaycanlı qızın nənəsinin də iştirakı ilə boğularaq öldürüldüyünü deyib. Qızın günahı isə başını örtmək istəməməsi olub.

Ərləri döyüşdə öldürülmüş yüzlərlə qadın düşərgələrdə uşaqları ilə birlikdə yaşayır.
Ərləri döyüşdə öldürülmüş yüzlərlə qadın düşərgələrdə uşaqları ilə birlikdə yaşayır.

Digər qadınlar da vətən həsrəti ilə yaşayır. Tacikistandan olan br qadın oğlunun çəkdiyi ümid dolu rəsmlərini göstərərək, göz yaşlarını saxlaya bilməyib.

Suriya və İraqda həyat yoldaşları İŞİD-ə xidmət edən bəzi qadınlar ölüm hökmlərinə məhkum edilib. İraqda valideynlərinin terrorçular tərəfindən öldürülən uşaqların taleyi narahatlıq mövzusudur.

Məhkəmənin qərarı ilə edam edilən qadınların övladlarının taleyi bəlli deyil.

Lakin yardım təşkilatları düşərgələrdə həyatın kritik vəziyyətdə olduğunu və fövqəladə vəziyyətdən çıxmaq üçün zaman tələb olunduğunu deyir.

https://www.amerikaninsesi.org/a/mutlu-suriya-azerbaycan/5032836.html

 

Feuding Syrian Kurdish political blocs dance around rapprochement

As French and US initiatives for intra-Kurdish rapprochement in Syria stall, it seems that piecemeal defections from the Kurdish National Council to the Kurdish autonomous administration in the north of the country are the rule of the day.

al-monitor An officer of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) stands guard near the Syrian-Iraq border, Oct. 31, 2012. Photo by REUTERS/Thaier al-Sudani.

 

France and the United States are encouraging a rapprochement between Syria’s two feuding Kurdish political blocs, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Kurdish National Council, which is an official part of the Syrian opposition in exile known as the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces.

A Kurdish detente could serve as an early step toward incorporating parts of the opposition into the PYD-led autonomous administration of northeast Syria. In turn, wider opposition participation could help the autonomous administration gain a seat at negotiations to end the civil war, as well as win local and international recognition now that the main reason for the autonomous administration’s foreign support — the territorial fight against the Islamic State (IS) — has ended.

But the prospect of Kurdish rapprochement in Syria faces an uphill battle. Turkey wields influence over the Kurdish National Council and opposes the move; meanwhile, both Kurdish factions have unrealistic demands for a deal. Rather than an agreement at the organizational level, the most likely path forward for Syrian Kurdish cooperation involves disaffected council groups breaking off piecemeal to join the PYD-led autonomous administration, as they have done in the past.

The PYD and the council are at odds over the PYD’s nonconfrontational stance toward Damascus, the council’s proximity to the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition and each faction’s connection to rival Kurdish regional powers. Negotiations between the two sides to unite failed early in the civil war over power-sharing disputes. Since then, the council’s parties have refused to apply for licenses to participate in the autonomous administration, a fact the PYD has used to repress the council’s political activity.

Turkey opposes a Syrian Kurdish detente, as well as any step that might legitimize the presence of the PYD in northeast Syria. Ankara considers the PYD to be a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. Turkey’s peace process with the PKK collapsed in 2015, and despite hopeful indications this spring, it will likely remain that way as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to divert attention from recent political setbacks. In July, Turkey launched a new phase of its military campaign against the PKK in Iraq and once again threatened to invade PYD-led northeast Syria.

Mutlu Civiroglu, a journalist who specializes in Kurdish affairs in Syria and Turkey, told Al-Monitor that following the blow Erdogan received in local elections this year, “he needs something to consolidate, to bring back his support, the morale of his base.” Civiroglu added, “National security is beyond sacred for many Turkish politicians. When the issue is national security, they all keep silent, they all support the government.”

Turkish opposition is not the only hurdle to Syrian Kurdish rapprochement. While both Kurdish parties endorsed the detente proposal, their key demands seem to preclude a deal. Top PYD officials have stipulated that for talks to move forward, the Kurdish National Council must leave the Syrian National Coalition, which would strip the council of its political relevance as the only internationally recognized Syrian Kurdish opposition group, as well as disrupt the lives of council members living in Turkey.

“There’s no talk within this [detente] initiative, nor any direction within this initiative, toward withdrawing from the Syrian National Coalition or dealing negatively with it,” Hawwas Khalil Saadun, a council representative and member of the Syrian National Council, told Al-Monitor.

Meanwhile, the Kurdish National Council has called on the Rojava Peshmerga, its military wing based in Iraqi Kurdistan, to enter northern Syria to ensure the terms of an agreement with the PYD are implemented. The PYD will “never” accept this, Mohammed Abdulsattar Ibrahim, a Syrian Kurdish journalist with Syria Direct, told Al-Monitor. PYD officials maintain that “if there are two Kurdish forces on the ground, they will fight with each other, as happened between [Massoud] Barzani and [Jalal] Talabani from 1994-1998 [in Iraq]. That’s very possible,” Ibrahim said.

While the Kurdish National Council and the PYD are unlikely to strike a deal, wider Kurdish participation in the autonomous administration is possible — via council parties breaking off piecemeal and joining the administration.

Some council members have long disagreed with their organization’s closeness to the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition. One sticking point was Turkey’s resistance to the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum championed by Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iraq; he helped found the council and enjoys good relations with Ankara. Then came the rebel invasion of the Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin in January 2018. Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups committed widespread human rights violations against Kurds, and resettled Arabs evacuated from the suburbs of Damascus — who survived years of strangling siege imposed by the Syrian government — in houses abandoned by Kurdish residents. The council condemned the assault on Afrin when it occurred, but ultimately remained within the Syrian opposition.

“What happened in Afrin horrified people, including [Kurdish National Council] people in Kobani, Jazeera and other parts. They are very much afraid the ongoing atrocities in Afrin will recur in other Kurdish regions,” said Civiroglu.

Internal tensions caused by the council’s closeness to the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition, in addition to routine conflicts over power and positions, have resulted in several defections over to the autonomous administration. Certain council politicians imply that the defectors are PYD plants.

In 2016, three parties previously expelled from the council formed the Kurdish National Alliance, which went on to participate in formal autonomous administration elections. Two years later, prompted by Turkey’s assault on Afrin, the president of the Kurdish Future Movement in Syria split from the council and established a new party that now works alongside the PYD. Thirty more colleagues from the Kurdish Future Movement followed suit soon after.

The specter of future defections looms large as long as the PYD is the dominant Kurdish power in Syria. Ibrahim said that when the council “used to call for a protest or demonstration, thousands of people came. Now, a few people attend.” He added, “When the [council] parties defect, it’s for their own interests — they want to have a role.”

In June 2019, one of the council’s oldest factions, known as the Yekiti Party in Syria, expelled three leaders primarily because of a power dispute, said Ivan Hassib, a local Kurdish journalist who covers internal council dynamics. These leaders, who went on to form a new party, have not expressed a desire to work under the autonomous administration, as their “popular base is Barzani’s people. … Today, if the party that defected directly joined the PYD, that’s like suicide,” Hassib told Al-Monitor.

Nevertheless, he added that two of the three ousted politicians were accused by former colleagues of connections to the PYD. They might remain independent, or join the autonomous administration sometime in the future.

For its part, the PYD encourages Kurdish (and Arab) opposition parties to participate in the autonomous administration system that it leads, if they register, and provides a degree of freedom to criticize policy while maintaining control over the most important decisions. The more opposition parties join the administration, the more they dilute the presence of leaders connected to the PKK, and the closer the administration appears to its ideological premise as a decentralized, democratic system. Movement in this direction reduces the chance of a Turkish invasion and increases the chance of continued Western support.

“The entire [autonomous] administration wants to unify the Syrian opposition,” said Khabat Shakir, a PYD representative in Germany.

Pending a major shift in northeast Syria — such as US President Donald Trump pulling out US troops in advance of the 2020 presidential elections, and/or a Turkish invasion — piecemeal defections from the Kurdish National Council to the autonomous administration are the most likely form of Kurdish rapprochement currently available.

Dan Wilkofsky

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/08/syria-kurdish-national-council-defections-rapprochement.ac.html

Gazeteci Mutlu Çiviroğlu, Al Hol Kampına ziyaretini ve gözlemlerini iznews’e anlattı

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2014 yılında IŞİD Kürt topraklarına saldırdığında herkesin sorduğu soru aynıydı: Kürtler IŞİD’i durdurabilir mi?

Kürtlerin ve bölgede yaşayan halkların ve inançların zor bir süreçle karşı karşıya kalacakları öngörülüyordu. IŞİD kendini ilan ederken çok kuralsız bir savaşa girişeceğini belli etmişti.

IŞİD’in ortaya çıkışının temelinde Şam yönetimine karşı savaşmak olsa da 5 yıl boyunca savaşının büyük çoğunluğunu Kürtlere ve Kürtlerin yaşadığı topraklarda yürüttü.

Musul’dan başlayan ve Akdeniz’e kadar uzanacak bir alanda Irak, Şam İslam Devleti hilafetini amaçlayan örgüt, önündeki en büyük engellerden biri olarak gördüğü Kürt milis güçlerine karşı büyük bir savaş başlattı. Savaş sadece askeri olarak başlatılmadı, Ezidi, Hristiyan ve toprak savunması yapan müslüman Kürtler de IŞİD’in katliamlarında büyük bedel ödediler.

Kobani’de IŞİD’in yenilgisinden sonra,Halk Savunma Birlikleri (YPG) ile Türkiye arasında sınırlı olan iletişim tamamen koptu ve Türkiye, Kürt unsurlarını tehdit etmeye başlayarak Kürt güçlerini “terör” örgütü ilan etti. Uluslararası platformlarda buna yönelik diplomatik faaliyet yürüttü.

Türkiye ile Kuzey Suriye/Rojava sınır hattında da gerginlik gittikçe büyüdü ve bu gerginlik tırmanmaya devam ediyor.

IŞİD’in Kürt güçlerine karşı büyük hayallerle başlattığı Kobani savaşı, Irak Şam “İslam Devleti” temelleri için hem başlangıç hem de son oldu. Kobani savaşı sonrasında,IŞİD’in toprak hakimiyeti, üst üste aldığı yenilgilerin ardından hilafetin başkenti ilan ettiği Irak’ın Rakka vilayetini kaybetmesiyle son buldu.

En son sığındıkları Deirezzor’da binlerce militanını kaybetti. Geriye kalan binlerce militan ve yerleşik yaşama geçen aileleri ve çocukları uluslararası koalisyon destekli SDG’ye teslim oldu. Bu, Irak Şam İslam Devleti’nin toprak hakimiyetinin tamamen bittiğinin ve çöküşünün fotoğrafıydı…

IŞİD sonrasında Kuzey Suriye Özerk Yönetimi, dünyanın her yerinden çağırdığı gazeteci, akademisyen, hukukçu ve önemli şahsiyetlerle “IŞİD’lilerin uluslararası bir mahkemede yargılanma” koşulları üzerine geniş katılımlı bir çalıştay düzenledi.

Kuzey Suriye Rojava’da, Rojava Stratejik Ararştırmalar Merkezi (NRLS) tarafından “IŞİD” konulu foruma katılan deneyimli gazeteci Mutlu Çiviroğlu ile forumun amacı, uluslararası platformda olası karşılığı, esir IŞİD’li ailelerin durumu ve şu an bulundukları koşullar, Türkiye’nin Kürt bölgesine yönelik tehditleri, tarafların ne düşündükleri, ABD tarafında SDG ile Ankara arasında yapıldığı iddia edilen ara buluculuğu konuştuk.

Röportaj | İhsan Kaçar

Kuzey Suriye Rojava’da bulunan yaklaşık 70 bin IŞİD’li ailelerinin bulunduğu Al Hol Kampı |
Mutlu Çiviroğlu

IŞİD’in yenilgisinden sonra, sizin de katıldığınız uluslararası düzeyde bir konferans düzenlendi. Konferansın temel amacı ve tartışılan konular neydi?

“Kampta bulunan IŞİD’e yakın kişiler birçok vakaya karışıyor”

Mutlu Çiviroğlu | Konferans, IŞİD`in coğrafi olarak yenilmesinden sonra, yapılması gerekenleri tartışmak üzere yapıldı. Suriye Demokratik Güçleri`nin (SDG) elinde bulunan IŞİD`li militanların, kadınların ve çocuklarının, başlıca Al-Hol Kampı’nda bulunan insanların durumunun tartışılmasına yönelik bir konferanstı. Bu insanların dünya ve özellikle bölge için yarattığı riskler ve sorunlar var. Çünkü bu insanların sayısı Rojava’da, Kuzey ve Doğu Suriye’de çok fazla ve bu bir güvenlik sorunu oluşturuyor. Bundan bir süre önce militanların cezaevinden kaçma girişimleri oldu. Al-Hol Kampı’nda 14 yaşında bir kız çocuğunu öldürmeleri, bir asayiş görevlisini bıçaklamaları ve bundan birkaç gün önce Endonezyalı hamile bir kadını anlaşılmayan bir nedenden öldürmeleri gibi birçok olay yaşandı. Bu tür durumlara dikkat çekmek, ülkelerin kendi vatandaşlarını almaları ve en önemlisi eğer bu ülkeler vatandaşlarını kabul etmiyorlarsa, uluslararası bir mahkeme kurulması ve bunların nasıl yargılanabileceğine dair hukuki alışveriş tartışıldı konferansta.

Katılımcılar arasında devletleri temsilen resmi yetkililer var mıydı?

Mutlu Çiviroğlu | Bu konferans, devletler arası bir düzeyde olmadığı için, yönetimleri  temsil eden kimse yoktu. Daha çok kendi ülkelerinden gazeteci, doktor, akedemisyen, toplumlarında ağırlıkları olan insanlarla tartıştık. IŞİD sonrası sahada var olan sorunun yerel yetkililer tarafından dile getirilmesi; askeri, ekonomik, toplumsal olarak tartışıldı. Konforansta bulunan katılımcılar da bunu kendi ülkelerine aktarıyorlar. Bilgi alışverişi yapıldı. Amerika, Fransa, Güney Afrika, Mısır, Almanya, Arap Birlikleri`nden ve daha birçok ülkeden gelen katılımcılar vardı. Katılımcılar sahayı bizzat gözleme imkanı da buldular.

Konferansın sonuçları ne tür bir yansıma yaratabilir. AB ve ABD nezdinde karşılığını bulabilir mi?

Mutlu Çiviroğlu | 3 gün süren uluslararası bir konferansın, Rojava gibi bir yerde, savaşın yerle bir ettiği Suriye gibi bir ülkede  hiç aksamadan güvenli bir şekilde sürmesi  dikkat çeken bir nokta. Hem uluslararası hem de toplumsal sorunun tartışılması mutlaka etkili olacaktır ki bu kısmen başarılı oldu diyebiliriz. Birçok uluslararası medya kuruluşu bu sorunları dile getirdi. Al Hol Kampı | Mutlu Çiviroğlu

Yabancı ülkelerin vatandaşı olan esir IŞİD üyeleri ve aileleriyle ilgili uluslararası mahkeme düşünülüyor, bununla ilgili girişimler var mı? Orada bulunan koalisyon güçlerinin bu konudaki düşünceleri nelerdir? Mahkeme kurulacaksa belirli bir tarih üzerinde duruluyor mu? Eğer planlanıyorsa uluslararası mahkemeyi nerede kurmayı düşünüyorlar?Başlık

“Uluslararası güçler bu konuda biraz isteksiz davranıyor”

Gözlemlerine göre uluslararası güçlerin biraz isteksiz davrandığını ve Kürtler’de ’kendi sorunlarına çözüm bulmaya çalışıldığını dile getiren Mutlu Çiviroğlu, “Çok fazla IŞİD’li ve aileleri var ortada ve bu durum Rojava Kürtleri’ni hem ekonomik hem de toplumsal olarak çok büyük bir baskı altına almış durumda. Daha önce de belirttiğim gibi, kamplar ve cezaevleri çok büyük sorunlara sebep oluyor. Bu insanların cezaevlerinden, kamplardan kaçma ihtimalleri yüksek. Al-Hol Kampı’nı ziyaret ettiğim zaman 4 kişilik bir güvenlik ekibi bana eşlik etti. Çünkü güvenliğimizden endişe ediyorlardı.  Hâlâ radikal olan büyük bir kesim var kampta. Elbette herkes için aynı yargıya varmak doğru olmaz, pişman olanlar da var. Ama geneli itibari ile o kampın yarattığı tehlikeler mevcut. Uluslararası mahkeme fikri yeni ortaya çıktı. Rojava yönetimi; Fransa, Güney Afrika, Hollanda gibi ülkelerden hukuk uzmanları ile düzenlenen özel bir oturumda, uluslararası hukuktan herhangi bir onay gelmeden mahkumları kendilerinin de yargılayabileceğini dile getirildi. Bu benim için çok dikkat çekici bir noktaydı. Hem hukuksal hem de askeri olarak böyle bir şeyin uygulanabileceği bizzat dışarıdan gelen uzmanlar tarafından dile getirildi. Önümüzdeki süreçte bu konu biraz daha dile getirilecek. Tabi ki coğrafi olarak dışarıdan gelebilecek engelleri de göz önünde bulundurmak gerekiyor.”

Uluslararası mahkeme kurulursa, Özerk Yönetim’in Anayası’na göre mi IŞİD’lileri yargılayacak, yoksa IŞİD’lilerin yargılaması için yeniden özel bir anayasa çalışması mı devreye girecek?

“Savaş ve soykırım suçu ile yargılanacaklar”

Uluslararası mahkemenin kurulması kolay bir durum olmadığı ifade eden Çiviroğlu, “Bunu uluslararası koalisyonun desteklemesi gerekiyor.  Çünkü daha öncesinde yapılan mahkemeler bu minvalde yapıldı. Uluslararası hukuka  göre, birçok ülkeden yargılanması gereken insanlar var, o yüzden bu iş çok boyutlu; savaş ve soykırım suçları ile yargılanacaklar. “

IŞİDlilerin bulunduğu en büyül kamp olan Al Hol kampına gittiniz. Kamp ne durumda? IŞİD’lilerin örgütleme faaliyetleri var mı?

mAl Hol Kampında IŞİDli aileler

Kampta yaklaşık 70 binden fazla insanın kaldığını söyleyen Çiviroğlu, “Çoğunluğu Iraklı ve Suriyeli mülteciler. Baghuz operasyonundan sonra birçok IŞİD’li aile getirildi. Bu da kampın demografik yapısını kısmen değiştirdi denebilir. IŞİD`li kadınların kendi içlerinde örgütlü bir yapıya gitmesi, iç hiyerarşi denilebilecek yapıya sahip olmaları, kendi aralarında oluşturdukları polis düzeninin röportaj esnasında yanımıza gelip konuşan kişiyi dinlemesi  kampı kontrol altında tutmaya çalıştıklarının bir belirtisi. Bizim büyük bir güvenlikle önlemiyle kampa gitmemiz, kampın ne kadar tehlikeli olduğunu gösteriyor. Buna rağmen çevreden gelen küfürlere ve olumsuz bakışlara maruz kaldık. Yine bundan birkaç gün önce kampta IŞİD bayrağı dalgalandırarak örgüte halen bağlı olduklarının mesajı verdiler. IŞİD düşüncesinin hâlâ devam ettiğini görebiliyoruz. Bu düşüncenin kamp içinde kendilerine uymayanları öldürmeye kadar gittiğini biliyoruz. Kampta ve Baghuz’da dikkatimi çeken diğer bir önemli nokta ise kadınların, erkeklere oranla hilafet düşüncesine çok daha bağlı ve çok daha radikal olabildiği bir durum mevcut…”

Mevcut kampı izin alarak gezdiğini belirtten Çiviroğlu, kampta yaşananlara ilişkin bazı iddiaları, kampı dolaştığı esnada sorduğunu ve iddialarla ilgili yetkililerin kendisine şu açıklamalarda bulunduğunu aktardı:

”Söz konusu iddialar kesinlikle doğru değil. Fakat gelen kişiler, YPG’nin olsun Asayiş’in olsun, askeri kıyafetler giyiyor. Fakat bildiğiniz gibi Hol Kampında durumlar karışık ve bir noktaya kadar tehlike de var. Rahat bir şekilde askeri kıyafetleri giyip YPG adına, Asayiş adına kadınları çıkarıyorlar.  Kaçış olmuş fakat çok fazla değil. Birkaç aile çıkmıştır belki. Kontrolümüzde olduğu için kolay kolay kaçamıyorlar. Kaçmak isteyenleri hemen engelliyoruz. Adımızı karalamak için böyle şeyler yapmak istediler. Başlık

“IŞİDli kadınların taciz ettiği iddiaları doğru değil

Gazeteciler Hol Kampı’na gittikleri zaman, bu kampın nasıl olduğunu biliyorsunuz, bazı kadınlar bizi karalamak istiyor ve bu tür şeyler söylüyorlar. Fakat biz kültür ve ahlakımızla tanınıyoruz. Asayiş’in herhangi bir tacizi gerçekleşmemiştir. YPG’yi ve Asayiş’i karalamak isteyenler, Özerk Yönetimi karalamak isteyenler bu tür şeyler yapıyorlar. Bizim düşman sayımız çok. Hol Kampı’ndan sonra bütün ülkelerden insanlar burada toplanmışlar. Bu tür şeyleri çok söylüyorlar, fakat doğru değil bunlar çünkü söz konusu iddialar gerçeği yansıtmıyor. Bu kadınlar bizi karalamak istiyor. Kendilerini kurtarmak için bu tür şeyler yapıyorlar. Bizi kötü bir şekilde göstermek isteyen gazeteciler aracığıyla yabancı ülkelerin dikkatini çekmek istiyorlar. IŞİD’e yardım etmek isteyen kimseler böyle şeyler yapıyorlar. Bizde taciz gibi bir durum söz konusu olamaz. Böyle bir şey yapan ya da düşünen kimse cezalandırılır. Kültür ve ahlakımızla tanınıyoruz, bizde olmaz böyle şeyler. Örnegin erkek Asayiş üyeleri çadıra girmiyorlar. Erkek Asayiş üyeleri dışarda nöbet tutuyorlar, kadın Asayiş üyeleri içerde nöbet tutuyor. Ayrı bir şekilde duruyor erkek ve kadın asayiş üyeleri. Erkek asayiş üyelerinin çadırlara girmesi yasak.m1IŞİD’lileirn kaldığı Al Hol Kampında IŞİD’li sempatizanların bıçakla yaraladığı asayış görevlisi | Mutlu Çiviroğlu

Biçaklama meselesi peki? Evet bıçaklama meselesi doğrudur. Büyük bıçaklar emniyetten dolayı yasaklanmış durumda. Kampta öldürme durumları oluyor. Bu tür tehlikeler var. Asayişten arkadaşlarımız kampta dolandıkları zaman bıçakla arkalarından saldırıyorlar. İntikam almak istiyorlar. Kadının çadırda öldürümesi meselesi doğrudur. Küçük kız çocuğunun meselesi de doğrudur. Oz nenesi o küçük kızı öldüren gruba yardımcı olmuş. Sebebi de küçük kız çocuğunun yüzünü açmak istemesi ve siyah giysilerden kurtulup renkli şeyler giymek istemesi. Onu kafir olarak gösterip öldürmüşler. IŞİD ideolojisinden çıkmak isteyen kadınları öldürmeyi, yakmayı, helal görüyorlar. Birkaç gun once öldürülen Endonezyali kadın da işkence ile öldürülmüş. Bir bıçak darbesiyle değil, soyuyorlar, ölene kadar dövüyorlar. Yüzünüü açmak isteyen küçük çocuğun da elini kırmışlar, kemiklerini kırmışlar ve o şekilde öldürmüşler. Kadınlar bayrak kaldırdı, siyah elbiseler giydiler ve toplandılar.

“Buradaki IŞİD’liler, Al Hol Kampı’nda İslam Devleti’ni kurmak istiyor”

m2Al Hol Kampı | Mutlu Çiviroğlu

IŞİD’e bağlılıklarını gösterdiler. Zaten her tarafta duyuldu bu. Birkaç gün önce gerçekleşti bu. Biz onların önünü kapatıyoruz, Rojava için tehlike oluşmasını engelliyoruz. Onların önü kapandığı için bize karşı bir şeyler yapmak istiyorlar. Hol Kamp’ında yaşanalar bir gazeteye, bir dergiye bir filme sığacak şeyler değil ama. Günlük olarak gördüğümüz ve uğraşmak zorunda kaldığımız şeyler. Kadınlar, Hol Kampında İslam Devleti kurmak istiyor ve biz de doğal olarak onları engelliyoruz. İmkanlarımız kısıtlı ve üzerimizde Türkiye gibi bir tehdit var. Türkiye, Afrin’e saldırdığı gibi, bize de Cizre’ye de saldırırsa, kamplardaki IŞİD’lilerin hepsi bize karşı baş kaldırır. Kadınlar kendileri bunu söylüyor, Türkiye ile birlikte hareket ediyoruz, diyorlar. Biz bunun için devletlere çağrıda bulunuyoruz, gelip vatandaşlarını alsınlar. Üzerimizdeki baskıyı azaltsınlar. Bir destekte bulunsunlar, bir şey yapsınlar ve bizi bu yükten kurtarsınlar. Devletler kendi vatandaşlarını bir yük olarak bizi bırakmış ve onları korumamızı istiyorlar. ‘Onları koruyup kollayacaksın, onları besleyeceksin, onları tedavi edeceksin, bize saldırsınlar ve biz de cevap vermeyelim?’ Özerk Yönetim neye tahammül etsin, neye etmesin? Bu kadınlar kaldıkları sürece ideolojileri kuvvetlenecek ve DAIŞ bir daha dönecek. Zaten kadınlar IŞİD’in bir kez daha döneceğini söylüyor. Çocuklarını eğitip bize saldırtacaklarını söylüyorlar. Çocuklar IŞİD ideolojisiyle büyütülüyor. Bu şekilde anneleri ve babaları gibi olacaklar. Bunun için devletlere çağrımız bir an önce gelip vatandaşlarını almaları ve orada yargılamalarıdır. Kadınlar her an arkadaşlarımıza saldırıyor, küfür ediyor, bıçak saplıyorlar. Bunlar her gün yaşanıyor.  IŞİD cephelerde bitti, bu doğru fakat felsefe olarak, ideoloji olarak hala Rojava’da çok. Kamplarda ve hapislerde bu ideolojiden çok kişi var. Sadece cephede değil, kamplarda, hapislerde de IŞİD’e karşı mücadele yürütüyoruz ve bu ideolojiyi bitirmek istiyoruz.  IŞİD’e desteğin Türkiye üzerinden geldiğini biliyoruz. Avrupa’dan gelenler Türkiye üzerinden DAIŞ’e katıldılar. Bundan daha büyük tehlike olabilir mi? Kadınlar da bizi Türkiye ile tehdit ediyor, Türkiye’ye yardım edeceklerini söylüyorlar. Eğer Afrin’e saldırdıkları gibi saldırırlarsa Rojava DAIŞ olur ve diğer dış ülkeler için de tehdit oluşur.”

Oluşacak uluslararası bir mahkemede IŞİD’lilerin aileleri de yargılama kapsamında olacaklar mı? Kamp içerisinde IŞİD’li veya ailelerinden konuştuklarınız oldu mu? “İslam Devleti” hakkında ne düşünüyorlar, beklentileri nedir, yaşamlarına dair kodları nelerdir. Vatandaşı oldukları ülkelerde mi yoksa orada kurulacak uluslararası bir mahkemede mi yargılanmak istiyorlar?

Kamp içerisinde kurulan pazar tezgahları | Mutlu Çiviroğlu

Mutlu Çiviroğlu | Şöyle bir durumun görülmesi lazım, bu kadınlar Baghuz’dan geldi. Baghuz, IŞİD’e inanan savaşçıların ve ailelerinin son âna kadar kaldığı bir yer. Bu insanlar IŞİD’in çekirdek yapısını oluşturuyor. Bu kadınların sergiledikleri tavır, çok net bir şekilde seçim yaptıklarının göstergesi. Pişman olmadıklarını, bilinçli olarak katıldıklarını, IŞİD’e ve Bağdadi`ye bağlı olduklarını, bu kampta bulunmayıp da IŞİD bölgesinde yaşamak istediklerini pek çok kez dile getirdiler. Bu sebeple uluslararası bir mahkemede yargılanmaları gerekiyor, suçlarının cezasını çekmeleri gerekiyor. Yetkililerin söyledikleri de bu. Kadınlar ve çocuklar kendi ülkeleri tarafından alınıp yargılanmalı  ve rehabilitasyon desteği almalı… Ama uluslararası mahkeme konusu daha çok erkek savaşçılar üzerinden tartışılıyor. Kamptaki çocukların anneleri tarafından örgütlenmesi, IŞİD zihniyetiyle büyütülmesi çok büyük bir tehlike. Birleşmiş Milletler’in (BM) rapora göre 70,097 kişi yani 19,824 hane bu kampta kalıyor. Kürtler hem ekonomi hem de güvenlik açısından kampı kontrol etmekte zorlanıyor. Kampta, Kürtlere yönelik bir takım propagandalar yapılıyor; cinsel taciz, para karşılığı kadınların kamptan kaçmalarına göz yumulması gibi birçok şey olduğuna dair iddialar ortaya atılmıştı. Ben Türkiyeli, Hollandalı, Belçikalı, Azeri ve Tacik birçok kadın ile konuştum ama hiçbiri bu durumu dile getirmedi. Kürtlerin bu konudaki hassasiyeti ve ciddiyeti de bilinmekte. Kampta bir süre önce çarşı iznine çıkan bazı kadınların geri dönmemesi üzerine kamptan çıkışlar yasaklanmış durumda. Bu olayın ardından kampın içinde pazar kurulduğu ve kampta kalanların alışverişini buradan yaptıkları kamp yetkilileri tarafından dile getirildi.

Koridor meselesini üç başlık altında tek soru gibi sorayım.

a) Özerk yönetim ne düşünüyor, koalisyon güçleri ile yapılan ortaklaşmada neler konuşulmuş, hem fikir oldukları bir konu var mı?

b) Uluslararası koalisyondan yetkililer ile koridor meselesini konuşabildiniz mi? Askeri açıdan ne düşünüyorlar?

c) Ayrıca Türkiye’nin 30 km içerde olacak şekilde bir talebi var. Bu talebe ilişkin orada bulunan Uluslararası koalisyon ne düşünüyor?

m3ABD Suriye Özel Temsilcisi Jeffrey ile SDG yetkisi Mazlum Kobani

“Koridor meselesinde, ABD Türkiye’ye değil de, Kürtlerle daha hemfikir”

Mutlu Çiviroğlu: Güvenlik ve tampon bölge konusunda Türkiye ve ABD’nin birbirine uzak durduğu, Kürtler ile Amerika’nın hemfikir olduğu söylenebilir. Bu da YPG`nin sınırın 5 kilometre ötesinde bulunmasını kapsamakta.  Tampon bölge de  Kürtlerin, Arapların, Süryanilerin, Ezidilerin ve orada bulunan halkın kendisini dışarıdan gelebilecek tehlikelere karşı koruması anlamına geliyor. Son dönemde Türkiye’den gelen açıklamalar da bu kaygıları arttırmış durumda. Tarafların tampon bölgeye bakış açısı çok farklı, bu yüzden nasıl bir çözüm bulunacağı daha belirsiz. Özellikle Afrin’de meydana gelen cinayet, işkence, tecavüz, rehin alma, talan etme gibi birçok olayın raporlara yansıması, diğer bölgelerde yaşayan insanları da tedirgin etmiş durumda. Bu sebeple Kürtler  tampon bölgenin kurulması ve güvenliğin sağlanması konusunda ısrarcı. Paragraf

Koridor meselesi ve Türkiyenin tehditleri ile ilgili Jeffrey’in SDG ile Türkiye arasında arabuluculuk yaptığı iddiaları doğru mu? Arabuluculuk yapıldıysa “Türkiye neler söylemiş, hangi şartları öne sürmüş, SDG’nin buna yönelik cevabı neler olmuş?.” Arabuluculuk varsa ne durumda seyrediyor. Türkiye bir dönemde Özerk Yönetimi tehdit etmiyordu ve S-400’lerin alımından sonra Türkiye tekradan Menbiç ve Kuzey Suriye’ye yönelik tehdit dozunu arttırdı. Arabuluculuğun iyi gitmediğine bağlayabilir miyiz?

m4Reuters -Arşiv

“Arabuluculuk değil de, ABD hem SDG, hem de Türkiye ile görüşüyor”

Mutlu Çiviroğlu | ABD’nin arabulucu olduğunu sanmıyorum. ABD Türkiye ile müttefik, SDG ile işbirliği içinde. Hem Türkiye ile hem de Kürtler ile görüşebiliyor. Arabulucu olarak iki tarafın da bir noktada mutabık olması gerekiyor ama benim gözlemlediğim ABD daha çok Türkiye’nin agresif tutumunu yatıştırmayı amaçlıyor. ABD, Rojava’dan gelebilecek bir tehlike olmadığını görüyor; kendi askerleri, cihazları, radarları orada, ve askerleri sınır devriyelerinde yer almakta. Bütün bunların bir diğer var oluş sebebi de olası bir Türkiye saldırısının önüne geçmek. Ayrıca sizin de belirttiğiniz gibi, bölgedeki gerginlik  S-400’leri kısmen unutturmak için bilinçli olarak tekrar tırmandırılmış durumda. ABD’li demokratların ve cumhuriyetçilerin Türkiye’ye karşı çok büyük tepkileri var. Trump`ın isteksiz olduğu basına da yansıdı. Suriye’deki durumun tırmandırılması S-400’ler için Türkiye’de biraz daha yer açmış durumda, bu da zaten bilinçli olarak yapıldı.

Türkiye ile ABD arasında Rojava konusundaki en büyük tartışma, ABD’nin SDG/YPG’yi bölgede işbirliği için güvenilir bir aktör olarak görmesi.  Türkiye ise Kürt güçlerini bir tehlike görüyor. Bu durumda iki tarafın  mutabık olmasını zorlaştırıyor.  Öte yandan Türkiye, Rojava konusunu tırmandırarak ABD’nin taviz vermesini sağlamak niyetinde… | iznews agency

 

A ticking time bomb: Meeting the ISIS women of al-Hol

Al-Hol woman A woman at al-Hol camp in Syria. Image: Mutlu Civiroglu

A pregnant woman was reportedly beaten to death this week in a Syrian refugee camp housing tens of thousands of people displaced by the war against Islamic State where they live among the militants’ wives and children in conditions described by international agencies and reporters who have visited the camp as harsh, dire, and even apocalyptic.

The woman, identified as 30-year-old Sodermini by ANHA news agency, was six months pregnant, and originally from Indonesia. On July 28, her body was discovered in a tent and taken to a hospital run by the Kurdish Red Crescent, where an autopsy determined she had suffered tremendously before she died.

The Indonesian government said it is investigating the circumstances of her death, and the woman is believed to be among about 50 Indonesian adherents to Islamic State living among about 70,000 people in the camp. It’s not known yet who killed her or why.

Children have died in the camp, and the International Committee of the Red Cross said recently that, despite the efforts of international NGOs to treat people with war wounds, infections, or who are suffering from malnutrition, the humanitarian needs in al-Hol remain “tremendous.”

Last month, Kurdish analyst and journalist Mutlu Civiroglu visited al-Hol camp and other areas managed by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the de facto government in northern and eastern Syria. He found al-Hol to be a “ticking time bomb” – dangerously overcrowded, too large for the Kurdish internal security police force called the Asayish to control, and full of children deeply at risk of becoming the next generation of ISIS fighters.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Women in al-Hol campWomen walk in al-Hol camp in Syria in July 2019. Image: Mutlu Civiroglu

The Defense Post: To start, tell me about the camps. Who runs them? How many people are there –how many women, men and children? How many are believed to be ISIS adherents and their families? How many are civilians?

Mutlu Civiroglu: According to the U.N. over 70,000 people live in al-Hol Camp. UNICEF estimates that more than 90% of them are children and women. Nearly 20,000 of the children are Syrians. According to Kurdish officials I spoke with, in total there are about 30,000 ISIS women and their children from 62 different countries. They are mainly in al-Hol but also in Ain Issa and Roj camps.

The whole of al-Hol camp is very crowded. Over 70,000 people live there. Considering the very hot summer, the camp residents live under very tough circumstances.

We were there one day when it was very hot. The sewage water was outside, on the surface – a very unhygienic environment and invitation for disease and illness. There are not enough doctors or health centers, according to the people we spoke to.

Security-wise it’s very risky because it’s over-crowded, hard to control. A few weeks ago an Asayish officer was stabbed. A 14-year-old Azeri girl was killed because she was not covering her hair, according to the people on the ground. I had to go to the camp with strong protection after this incident. It’s like a ticking bomb. The Kurdish administration runs the camp but UNICEF [the U.N. children’s agency], UNHCR [the U.N. refugee agency], the Red Cross, World Health Organization, and other intergovernmental organizations are there to support them, from what I could see.

Abdulkarim Omar, head of foreign relations in Jazira canton, told me that including Syrians and Iraqis there a total of 30,000 ISIS women and children under their control and around 12,000 are foreigners (muhajirs) and 8,000 of them are children. Of course male suspected ISIS members are kept in prison in different locations. Currently some 6,000 ISIS fighters are under SDF control: 5,000 are Iraqi and Syrian, and the other 1,000 are foreigners from 55 different states.

TDP: How are they separated?

The ISIS families are separated from the rest of the Iraqis and Syrians. There are wires separating them from the rest of the refugee community in the camp, and their location is known by the security and Asayish forces.

TDP: Do they live more or less freely within the camp or are their schedules and movements restricted?

The camp residents were allowed to go out for shopping until recently, but several escape incidents took place, and some ISIS women were taken out by smugglers, so the camp administration recently banned residents from going out. Instead they set up a new market inside of the camp, called Baghuz market. The administration is more strict now.

Their movements have to be restricted because of the killings. I was told the Russian women did that [killing of a 14-year-old Azeri girl] – by Russian I mean women from Chechnya, Dagestan, the Muslim republics of Russia – so their movements are more restricted and security is tightened after these incidents. Some camp residents have complained that because they’re not allowed out of the camp, the prices became more expensive and they’re having a hard time living because things are more expensive now. But they also acknowledge that by the mistake of some of the ISIS wives they’re all suffering.

I was told that kids are encouraged by women to throw stones at the camp officials. This also creates pressure on the security forces to be more careful.

TDP: What is the food and water supply like? Medicine? Sanitation? Are international organisations helping with humanitarian needs?

Based on what I saw I think there is enough water, but because the camp is overcrowded it causes problems especially with the water and in the summer. The Red Cross, WHO and UNHCR are there to provide help in addition to the Kurdish administration. They are also in-camp hospitals and health centers being built and mobile health centers set up by the Kurdish Red Crescent, so I don’t think there is a very desperate need, but because of the large number of residents I’m sure from time to time food and water is becoming a problem. International organizations and the local government are there trying to do their best.

However, Kurdish officials are asking for more support from the international community in terms of medicine, hospitals, water and cleaning materials. They also want countries to take back their citizens so that the population of the camp will be reduced.

TDP: There were some reports recently that some women escaped – do you know how? What is internal security like?

I was told the same thing and also read that some people in the Asayish are involved in taking the women out of the camps, but Kurdish officials strongly denied that and said it’s propaganda and their members would never be involved in such a thing because money is nothing for them, and they do this because of their values.

But the way different sources explained it to me is this: The women were allowed to leave the camp before for shopping, and since they all have the black burqa on, they look alike, and when they leave, they never come back because their families arrange a smuggler who is waiting for them in the town. Once these women go out of the camp they change their clothes and they are smuggled out. Since the camp is very large it’s not possible to have 100% control. That’s why the camp administration has now stopped allowing the women to leave for shopping. According to sources it’s arranged by families who pay a large amount of money to smugglers.

Internal security is tight. There are many Asayish forces guarding the camp, and the main gate is also a checkpoint. Before you reach the camp you pass through several checkpoints on the road from Hasakah. After you enter the main gate there’s another gate that’s also well-protected, and visitors are strictly controlled. When you’re inside they give you protection so stabbing incidents won’t happen. With me I think there were four people guarding us.

But again, because of the large area and a huge number of residents it’s not very easy to control the camp, and since you don’t know what’s inside of the tents or what kind of weapons they might have it’s not 100% safe or secured.

Al-Hol marketAuthorities in the al-Hol camp in Syria set up a market called Baghuz in an attempt to counter the smuggling of female ISIS adherents. Image: Mutlu Civiroglu

TDP: Do the families seem to be repentant?

I observed mixed feelings. Some were defiant; for example an Egyptian woman was cursing us. She was using bad language and was very aggressive towards us, and was chanting pro-ISIS slogans. Also Russian-origin ISIS wives were very aggressive, so you see that they’re very motivated by what they’re doing. Some Turkish ISIS families seemed defiant, but at the same time I saw some Azeri women look very regretful. They seemed willing to go back home.

One Tajik woman showed me drawings by her child, saying her son drew their home and they want to go home. And you see people saying they were deceived, especially Dutch and Belgian ISIS wives, they say they believed everyone was equal but realized that the rich lived better lives, and the emirs paid money to smuggle their families out of Baghuz before the SDF took control, but these women ended up in these camps in very tough circumstances.

They were criticizing Baghdadi, saying he was in Libya living a good life but they are like this [in al-Hol], and they want their countries to take them back. When I pressured ed them, saying they had many opportunities to leave and that they came to Syria willingly, they said they are ready to be in prison in their countries, but at least their children would not live in camp conditions. They hoped even when they are in prison, their families will be able to take care of children. They were well-aware that they might spend long years in prison, which I found very interesting.

Because of the tough circumstances in the camp I think going home is a common desire. But to me the most important thing was that the vast majority of the camp residents are children, and especially children under 12. They are on the dirt, they play in dusty alleys – no playground, no sanitizing, under the sun – I think no child should be living under those circumstances, no matter what their parents did. Children have nothing to do with this, so they need to be given the opportunity to play and be a child, to flourish. They need help to get out of this trauma and be de-radicalized and rehabilitated, and the camp is no place for that. They need expert support and psychological support.

I am hoping that the governments will understand that children desperately need help, because if they stay there they will be brainwashed by their mothers. In a few years these children are going to be core ISIS members, so there’s a danger waiting for societies if these kids are not helped as soon as possible.

TDP: Do you think there’s a realistic possibility of a tribunal? Why in North and East Syria rather than the International Criminal Court, or trials in Iraq for foreigners, as with some French citizens who already have been sentenced? The Autonomous Administration isn’t recognized as a government, so how would sentences or verdicts given by the tribunal have any force in international law?

The Autonomous Administration feels like they’re under pressure because there are thousands of ISIS fighters, their wives and children. It’s a heavy burden for them to carry so they need the international community to help them. Especially after the Turkish statements about a military operation inside Syria, there are concerns that such a move may help these people to flee from the prisons and camps. But so far very few countries have taken back their citizens so the problem remains on Kurds’ shoulders and they feel like they need to do something.

The idea of an international tribunal is a step in this direction to push the international community to do more to share the burden with them.

Currently the administration is not recognized officially but a tribunal can be different. The legal experts in International Forum on ISIS conference agreed that there is a base for establishing a tribunal in Rojava because there is already a judicial system, legal experts, lawyers and with the support of the international community a tribunal could be established and it would be a good way to start to find a solution to the huge problem of post-caliphate ISIS.

Again, there are thousands of fighters under SDF control, many of their wives, and tens of thousands of children and they feel like they need to do something because so far the international community is turning a blind eye to the issue.

The caliphate was ended in March. Western countries are not open to the idea to expatriate their citizens. So the problem is with Rojava, with the Syrian Kurds. The attacks show the gravity of the situation, and since nothing is being done, Kurds and their allies feel like they need to take the initiative.

Iraq is motivated to do that in a way to clear its name that was ruined when it was overrun by ISIS. The Iraqi army fled from ISIS and left it for them. But at the same time, Iraq is also driven by the idea of revenge. Numerous ISIS members have already been executed.

The system in Rojava is more progressive and closer to Western systems and it is a better location for an international court because most of the fight was done in Syria. The caliphate’s heart was in Raqqa. Manbij is where the attacks against the West were planned. Kobani is where ISIS was first defeated and ISIS’s unstoppable advance was first prevented. Baghuz was the last remaining stronghold of the caliphate. They’re all in Syria. And the SDF, YPG, YPJ, Syriac Military Council are there so Syria is more suitable than Iraq considering these people have done the work, they have paid the highest price. These people defeated ISIS.

Al-Hol security gateA security gate separates the families from ISIS fighters from displaced Syrians and Iraqis at al-Hol camp. Image: Mutlu Civiroglu

TDP: Are there plans to help the victims of ISIS?

There are some orphanages for the Yazidi children, de-radicalization centers for Yazidi children and other ISIS children, and some villages for Yazidi women who were not accepted back by their communities, but the resources are very limited in the Kurdish parts of Syria. Finances, expert advice and equipment are limited, so there has to be external support. The West especially should step in because the problem is very serious and requires a joint effort by Kurds and the West, especially the countries that are members of the international Coalition. The camps have the support of the international, humanitarian organizations but mainly Kurds are running them. There are great efforts, but it’s not enough.

TDP: Do you see any sign that the International Forum on ISIS conference has influenced foreign countries to change their Syria policies? Will they leave troops in the north, will they take their citizens back?

Such international forums are good venues to understand what’s happening on the ground and hear what people people on the ground – activists, experts, military and political leadership – say. It’s very important. There were representatives from the U.S., France, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other European countries, as well as South Africa. It’s important that people from different backgrounds come and learn about the situation in Syria, ISIS captives, operations against ISIS families, and also share with the local people what their countries think about it. So it’s a good platform for them, and when these people go back they talk to the public, media and think-tanks. I’m optimistic that they’ll have an impact in their own countries.

I think the countries that have a military presence in northern and eastern Syria will continue; I don’t foresee any significant change in the plans of these countries, specifically the U.S., France, Germany and others. They’ll be there because they all know the ISIS threat is not fully resolved yet. The caliphate is ended but the danger, the ideology is there, the support base is there, sleeper cells are there. CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie and Ambassador William Roebuck’s recent visit shows that the Coalition gives the same importance to Rojava.

The world has almost forgotten Syria. International foreign policy priorities change so rapidly that Syria does not have the same spot it used to have, but ISIS is a global problem and it hasn’t been fully resolved. The resolution needs a global effort. Taking back citizens from Syria is one way of doing that, because the more people who stay there, the more is it is a ticking bomb.

All countries should repatriate their citizens, and they should try these people in their countries. If not, they should support the idea of helping to set up a tribunal in Rojava so that these people can be brought to justice and pay the price for the atrocities they committed. But I think the world is still turning a blind eye, although recently I see more awareness in terms of countries taking back at least the women and children and sentencing them in their own countries instead of keeping them in Syria.

JOANNE STOCKER

A ticking time bomb: Meeting the ISIS women of al-Hol

U.S. IS IN BUSINESS WITH SYRIA’S ASSAD—WHETHER DONALD TRUMP LIKES IT OR NOT

BY TOM O’CONNOR

us, oil, business, syria, trump, assad
Syrian government forces stand at the entrance of the Rasafa oil pumping station after taking it from ISIS, on July 9, 2017. The site is situated southwest of the city of Raqqa, where ISIS would be driven out by the Syrian Democratic Forces months later.GEORGE OURFALIAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The United States’ primary allies in Syria have supplied oil to Damascus, despite the government being sanctioned by Washington.

The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, and the Kurdish forces that comprise the majority of the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have long maintained a working relationship despite vast political differences before and after a 2011 rebel and jihadi uprising that has threatened both of their livelihoods. As the two factions emerge as the most influential forces on the ground, their ongoing ties are receiving new attention.

The dialogue between the Syrian government and Syrian Democratic Forces has centered on the former’s need for oil from resource-rich regions held by the latter, which has demanded greater autonomy. U.S. plans to withdraw from the conflict following the virtual defeat of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), however, have expedited Kurdish desires to be on good terms with Damascus.

Reporting by Turkey’s official Anadolu Agency and Daily Sabah newspaper cited local sources Thursday as saying that a new deal had been reached to allow the People’s Protection Units (YPG)—the leading faction of the Syrian Democratic Forces—to more quickly transport oil via new pipelines being built under the government-held, eastern city of Deir Ezzor.

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Members of the Syrian Democratic Forces and U.S. soldiers (left) gather at the Al-Tanak oil field as they prepare to relaunch a military campaign against ISIS near Al-Bukamal, which is under government control, along with Deir Ezzor city, on May 1, 2018. The United States’ primary allies in Syria have supplied oil to Damascus, despite the government being sanctioned by Washington.DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The sources claimed that companies operating under government control had already begun laying pipes near Al-Shuhayl, a town off the western bank of the Euphrates River that divides the separate anti-ISIS campaigns waged by the Syrian government in the west and the Syrian Democratic Forces. The deal was reportedly the result of an agreement made during talks last July when the two sides agreed to share production profits.

The day after the Turkish report was published, The Wall Street Journal published its own piece citing a person familiar with U.S. intelligence and a tanker driver transporting oil in elaborating on the arrangement. The article found that oil tankers were traveling near daily to transport oil to the Qatarji Group, a firm hit by U.S. sanctions in September due to its alleged involvement in facilitating oil deals between the government and ISIS.

The official U.S. military mission in Syria was limited to defeating ISIS, but Washington and its regional allies previously intervened in the country via support for insurgents attempting to overthrow Assad, whom they accused of human rights abuses. The U.S. began targeting ISIS as it overtook half of both Iraq and Syria in 2014 and teamed up with the Syrian Democratic Forces the following year, just as Russia intervened on Assad’s behalf.

Since Moscow stepped in, the Syrian military and pro-government militias—some of which were Iran-backed Shiite Muslim paramilitary groups mobilized from across the region—have retaken much of the nation, leaving only the northwestern Idlib province in the hands of the Islamist-led opposition now primarily sponsored by Turkey, and roughly a third of the country under the Syrian Democratic Forces’ control in the north and east.

The Syrian Democratic Forces’ share includes most of the nation’s oil resources, which produced up to 350,000 barrels per day prior to the war before dwindling to about 25,000, according to current estimates, while the government still controls the nation’s oil refineries. The successful Syrian Democratic Forces campaign to retake the oil and gas fields from ISIS helped to starve the jihadis of their black market revenue. Now Damascus is in dire need of this income to establish an economy stable enough to capitalize on successive military victories.

GettyImages-811357670
Syrian government forces stand at the entrance of the Rasafa oil pumping station after taking it from ISIS, on July 9, 2017. The site is situated southwest of the city of Raqqa, where ISIS would be driven out by the Syrian Democratic Forces months later.GEORGE OURFALIAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

This has led to a number of profit-sharing agreements, extending back to at least 2017, as Damascus continued to pay the salaries of workers in Kurdish-held cities and talks expanded last year to include the Syrian government potentially retaking control of certain facilities such as the Al-Tabqa dam near the northern city of Raqqa. In return, the Syrian Democratic Forces have pushed for wider recognition of the country’s significant Kurdish minority and for greater self-rule. More than anything, however, the militia has now sought the Syrian government’s protection against a common enemy.

Turkey, a fellow U.S. ally, considers the YPG to be a terrorist organization due to suspected ties to a Kurdish separatist insurgency at home. With President Donald Trump planning to soon withdraw from Syria, many Kurdish fighters have expressed fears that their protective umbrella would close. Pro-government groups, too, have clashed with the Syrian Democratic Forces in apparent attempts to seize oil and gas infrastructure, which—along with the rest of the country—Assad has vowed to reclaim through diplomacy or force.

Though Trump has vowed to protect the Kurds in the event of a U.S. exit, he also accused them last month of “selling the small oil that they have to Iran,” even though “we asked them not to”—a charge denied by leading Syrian Kurdish politician Salih Muslim in an interview with journalist Mutlu Civiroglu. Like Syria, Iran was subject to extensive sanctions by Washington, restricting its ability to market oil internationally.

Iran has, however, sent up to 10,000 barrels per day to Syria, as estimated by TankerTrackers.com and reported by The Wall Street Journal, furthering both countries’ economic interests in a development that has prompted anxieties among Arab states feeling increasingly sidelined by Tehran. As the Syrian Democratic Forces rushed to repair relations with Damascus, a number of Arab League states have also begun to repair ties gradually in hopes of steering Syria away from Iran.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-oil-business-syria-trump-assad-1325018

 

 

 

Turkish army pull out will bring peace to Northern Syria

The Turkish troops constantly harass the local, and the only way to return peace and stability is to transfer the land under control of the Syrian government.

Firas Samuri

Why Turkey is building a wall around Syria’s Afrin

Last month, Turkey quietly began building a wall around the northeastern Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin, which it has occupied since early 2018. Amid increased attacks on its soldiers and Syrian militiamen proxies in the enclave, one purpose of the wall is to provide additional security.

Yet there are fears the wall could be a major step by Turkey to annex Afrin and prevent the return of the tens of thousands of Kurds who had to leave their homes there as a result of the Turkish invasion.

“Sources on the ground in Afrin see this as another step of Turkey’s annexation of Afrin into its own borders,” said Mutlu Çiviroğlu, a Syria and Kurdish affairs analyst. “Since last year Afrin has been controlled by Turkey and its Syrian proxies. The civilian affairs are run by Turkey’s Hatay Governorate.”

Çiviroğlu also pointed out that the wall cuts Afrin off from the rest of Syria, in particular areas around the nearby city of Tal Rifaat, where well over 100,000 of Afrin’s displaced are currently living. This may indicate that one of Turkey’s primary aims is to prevent these Kurds from returning and reclaiming their homes.

“Locals are worried that this wall is another step by Turkey to annex Afrin,” he said. “At the same time they expect the Syrian government to give a tougher reaction, but so far we haven’t seen that.”

Çiviroğlu also pointed out that “some other sources say that this wall is designed to prevent the increased number of Afrin Liberation Forces (HRE) attacks, which have recently afflicted serious losses on Turkish soldiers and Turkish-backed forces in Afrin.”

The HRE – the Afrin branch of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) – has targeted Turkish troops and Turkish-backed forces in both Afrin and the town of Azaz, which is part of the Syrian territories Turkey captured from Islamic State (ISIS) in its 2016-17 Euphrates Shield operation. Ankara invariably responds to these attacks by firing artillery at alleged HRE targets in the Tal Rifaat area.

Professor Joshua Landis, head of the Middle East Studies Department at the University of Oklahoma, said Turkey’s wall serves several purposes.

“The cement wall around Afrin represents a visual reminder of Turkish control,” he said. “It is meant to indicate to both inhabitants of Afrin and the world that the border is permanent; Ankara is serious about staying in north Syria. On a more practical level, the wall provides security against insurgents and those who seek to return Afrin to Kurdish control and expel the Turks and Arab militias.”

Notably, the Syrian and Russian governments have not severely criticised Turkey for this action, indicating there is some acquiescence on their part.

“There is a perception among the Syrian Kurds, activists and journalists, that Russia is trying to appease Turkey on this matter so the deal to sell Ankara S-400 missiles is finalised and Moscow gets what it wants in Syria’s Idlib province,” said Çiviroğlu.

At an April 29 press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was unaware of the project.

“To be honest, I have never heard anything about a wall around Afrin,” he said. “But I proceed from the fact that the Turkish leadership was adamant in confirming a number of times that Turkey’s anti-terrorist activities in Syrian territory are temporary.”

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad recently reaffirmed Damascus’s opposition to Turkey’s military presence in Syria and reiterated the government’s determination “to liberate every inch of Syrian territory”, but did not mention the new wall in Afrin.

“The Syrian and Russian governments have been silent about this latest Turkish provocation because they are busy pushing north from Hama against HTS and Turkish control in the Idlib enclave,” Landis said, referring to the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which controls parts of the northern Syrian province.

He pointed out that there have been suggestions “that Turkey and Russia have come to an agreement in which Turkey will be allowed to extend its control over the north Aleppo in exchange for Syria extending its control over Idlib.”

“While the Turks push south against the Kurds, the Syrians will push north against Arab rebels,” said Landis.

Landis concluded by pointing out that there is some possibility that Damascus “may also be reluctant to stand up for the Kurds in north Aleppo province as a form of revenge against the Kurds of Rojava [Syrian Kurdistan] who have asked for a permanent American presence in northeast Syria.”

Güney Yıldız, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, thinks the walls main purpose has more to do with security than any long-term Turkish plan to annex the enclave or permanently alter its demographics.

“I think the primary purpose of the wall is to prevent the ongoing YPG – or HRE as the YPG in Afrin calls them – attacks in Afrin,” Yıldız said. “The attacks have increased in the last few weeks and Kurdish officials indicate that they will intensify their attacks during the summer.”

“Cementing demographic changes or annexing Afrin to the Turkish territory doesn’t necessarily require constructing a wall,” he said. “Having said that, I believe that Afrin will be the last place Turkey will withdraw from in Syria.”

Yıldız noted that Turkish officials value the country’s continued occupation of Afrin more than its occupation of the other, much larger, northwestern territories Turkey captured from the Islamic State in the aforementioned Euphrates Shield operation.

“For Turkish officials, agreeing to give back Al-Bab, Jarablus or Azaz or working with Russia to return Idlib back to the regime control is more preferable than ceding control in Afrin,” Yıldız said. “Turkey wants to keep the Kurds as far away from the Mediterranean as possible.”

https://ahvalnews.com/syrian-war/why-turkey-building-wall-around-syrias-afrin

Svjedok propasti ISIL-a: Na njihovim licima nisam vidio kajanje

 

Novinar Mutlu Civiroglu je tri sedmice svjedočio borbama za posljednje uporište ISIL-a u Siriji. Pogledajte intervju u kojem govori o Bosancima koje je tamo sreo, ali i o trenutku kada su pucali na njega – što se vidi i na snimcima koje objavljujemo.

https://ba.voanews.com/a/svjedok-propasti-isil-a-na-njihovim-licima-nisam-vidio-kajanje/4889063.html

 

ISIS’s ‘caliphate’ was crushed. Now Syria’s Kurd-led alliance faces bigger battles

Reporting from shattered Syria in the dying days of the caliphate, Jared Szuba talks to Kurds and Arabs about the fight for their shared future

SDF fighters in Baghuz, SyriaSDF fighters in Baghuz, Syria in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

In the last days of Islamic State’s professed caliphate, under the cover of thunder and heavy rain, Coalition aircraft bombed an ammunition depot south of the Syrian village of Baghuz.

The detonation touched off a cluster of fires in the cult’s densely-inhabited encampment.

The next morning, more than one thousand of the remaining believers gathered at the foot of Mount Baghuz to surrender to the alliance of Syrian militias that surrounded them on three fronts. To their south lay the Euphrates riverbank, within range of the Syrian Arab Army across the water.

For weeks their tents had been raked with automatic fire, their zealous mujahideen picked off by the polished snipers of the predominantly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Each night, their dugouts and shelters were slammed from all sides with American and French 155mm artillery and 120mm SDF mortars.

“Strike and wait, strike and wait,” a stocky Syrian Democratic Forces conscript told me at the base of the cliff. The progress was grueling. “We’re advancing, but can’t with the civilians in front,” he said.

Every few days the jihadists called for an evacuation, and the main assault halted. But sniper operations continued, cadre said, to prevent them from exploiting the quasi-ceasefire.

“They send the civilians out then they stay. We keep telling them, ‘Whoever doesn’t surrender, dies.’”

Behind him, a procession of black veils shuffled up the path, contrasting with the sandy bluff illuminated by the setting sun. They clung to dirty children, some crying.

A lanky teenager with a Kalashnikov gestured to the bags born by one of the black forms. Without hesitation, she jettisoned the luggage down the cliff.

“That’s the last group!” someone shouted in Arabic. A gang of fighters shouldered their rifles and jumped off sandbags, skidding and jogging down the gravel path towards the front. One told me to leave the area. “It’s going to begin again any minute.”

I legged it back to the van and climbed in. Half a football field ahead, two American-made Humvees bearing the yellow flag of the SDF squatted before of a one-story concrete home.

On the roof, silhouetted against the sun through palm fronds, two fighters extended the bipod of a PKM with casual proficiency. As we pulled away, the crackle of small arms fire broke out, then grew into a steady rhythm. A Dushka chugged away somewhere behind.

“Their resistance is softening,” said Haval Ahmed, my 20-year old escort.

“It’ll probably end within days.”

People surrender to the SDF in ISIS-held Baghuz, SyriaA YPJ fighter watches as people surrender to SDF colleagues in ISIS-held Baghuz, Syria in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

The ground war against Islamic State has been declared finished. Coalition bombs are still pounding the last stragglers holed up under the south face of the cliff.

At a safe house a few kilometers north of the front, veteran SDF fighters told me Baghuz had been the most taxing fight of their war against ISIS.

“Honestly when we came here, we expected a big battle. But not these enormous numbers,” Mervan Qamishlo of the SDF’s Military Media Command said.

As we spoke, the ostensible caliphate that had once stretched nearly from Aleppo to Baghdad was being measured in square meters.

Already synonymous with savagery, the death cult nearly outdid itself in its last stand. Women and children returned fire on the SDF, an officer at the front said, and at least one surrendered mujahid said their leaders were withholding food from those who refused to fight.

The day after I arrived, a delegation of black-veiled suicide bombers mingled with the evacuees only to detonate among their own, wounding a handful of SDF guards.

Veteran jihadists from Anbar, Afghanistan, Chechnya and Turkey commanded the last of the believers, Mervan Qamishlo told me.

The hardened cadre had slipped past the Iraqi Army at Mosul and the YPG in Manbij, fled Raqqa and pulled back across the desert plain of Deir Ezzor, Hajin, and Sousa under catastrophic bombardment.

But if Daesh’s “elite” had concentrated in Baghuz, the same was true for their adversaries.

With every city the fanatics fled over the past four-and-a-half years, they surrendered thousands of their able-bodied survivors to a confederation of Western-backed militias that promised revenge, and a place in a new Syria.

SDF continue ISIS clearing operations inside Baghuz, SyriaSDF continues ISIS clearing operations inside Baghuz, Syria on March 20, 2019. Image: Mutlu Civiroglu/@mutludc/Twitter

Detachments from the YPG, its all-female counterpart the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), and the Syriac, Manbij, and Deir Ezzor Military Councils, as well as former Free Syrian Army factions such as the Liwa al-Shamal al-Dimokrati (Northern Democratic Brigade) and Jaysh al-Thuwar (Army of Revolutionaries), congregated for the final thrust of the war. (That SDF representatives in Baghuz could not account for all units participating signalled both the unity and urgency of their cause.)

Salih, a 20-year-old self-professed forward observer from Hasakah, had joined the YPG three years earlier “to fight terrorism.” We spoke on the roof of the house, overlooking miles of ruins that stretched from the Euphrates to the Iraq border.

After Baghuz, he said, he wanted “to go home.”

“We’ve finished the end of the road,” Salih, an Arab who previously had been affiliated with a Sunni rebel group, said. He stared over the sunlit battlefield with a sharp, empty gaze.

“This is the end of Daesh … We’ve liberated ourselves from terrorism inshahallah,” he said”We want a homeland so we can just live in security.”

For others, the fight was far from over.

Inside the house, a group of tired recruits just back from the front huddled on the floor scooping heaps hot rice and chicken from styrofoam trays.

I asked what they expected next after Baghuz. They hesitated, keeping their eyes on the food. A burly fighter in his late twenties took the opportunity to speak for them.

“We’ve had enough of war,” he said. He gave his name as Salaheddin.

A five-year YPG veteran who fought at al-Hol, al-Shaddadi, Manbij, Raqqa, and other battles – more than he could now recall – Salaheddin was on his third tour of the Deir Ezzor campaign.

“We’d love to rest,” he said, before adding, “we have much work ahead. Daesh isn’t finished. There are a lot of sleeper cells.”

“After we finish with the sleeper cells,” he paused, then gave a sly grin. “I’m not able to talk about that.”

YPG fighters on Mount Baghuz, SyriaYPG fighters YPG on Mount Baghuz overlooking the evacuation of ISIS civilians. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

Threat of Turkish invasion

The SDF declared Saturday it has taken a staggering 32,000 casualties in the conflict. If accurate, the losses are more than half the Pentagon’s estimate of its current forces. 11,000, including civilian volunteers who took up arms in Kobane and Efrin, are believed to have died.

The half-decade war against the Islamist genocidaires will one day be seen as the easy part, northern Syrian officials told The Defense Post.

To the north of their nascent territory, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is openly vowing a military assault to destroy the YPG and to purge its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), from local governance and re-settle hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees into Kurdish-majority areas in the north.

YPG officials, some known to be former members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), have long sought to distance the Syrian project from the insurgent group, but Turkey isn’t buying it.

The Washington establishment may have called Erdogan’s bluff on an invasion for now, but northern Syrian officials are taking the threats very seriously. In 2017, Turkey launched an incursion into Efrin that displaced hundreds of thousands of people, mainly Kurds, in an act yet to be labeled by any international body as an ethnic cleansing.

YPG graffitiYPG graffiti in eastern Syria in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

To the south, Syrian Defense Minister Ali Abdullah Ayoub last week reiterated his government’s demands for the north’s total capitulation and reintegration into the pre-war Baathist system, under which Kurds were denied citizenship for decades.

A regime assault would “only lead to more losses, destruction and difficulties for the Syrian people,” the SDF responded.

The Kremlin, having offered to mediate a favorable outcome for the north, now say they can do little to sway Assad, northern Syrian officials say.

Within their current borders, the conflict has dumped tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families into under-prepared internment camps. Northern Syrian authorities are now calling for U.N.-led and financed international tribunal to be held in Rojava (the Kurdish name for majority-Kurdish lands in northern Syria), their previous requests for the repatriation of foreign fighters mostly ignored.

Without formal international recognition, heavy artillery, armor or aircraft, the fledgling province’s fate may be largely out of its leaders’ hands for now.

Democratic project in northern Syria

In the meantime, northern Syrian authorities are managing matters within their control.

“We have defeated ISIS militarily. Now, we must do so ideologically,” said SDF media chief Mustafa Bali.

The north’s security institutions are set to be reorganized to focus on internal security operations. Officials are tight-lipped about details, but both the SDF and Asayish, or police forces, have already received new training programs focusing on hunting ISIS sleeper cells and dealing with explosives.

The U.S. Defense Department has requested $300 million in the 2020 budget for “vetted Syrian opposition” partners, including increased outfitting of northern Syria’s internal security forces and $250 million to support “border security requirements” of partner forces.

“Fighting at the front is different than the internal battle,” Aldar Xelil, senior TEV-DEM foreign affairs official, explained to me in Qamishli.

“The sleeper cells are considered the hardest phase. Harder than the phase we are undertaking now,” Mervan told me in Baghuz, as gunfire rattled in the distance.

Shouldering the weight will be the Asayish and internal intelligence services. But the vanguard against whatever remains of ISIS or its ideology will be the population of northern Syria itself, officials say.

People surrender in ISIS-held BaghuzPeople leave their belongings behind as they surrender from ISIS-held territory to SDF fighters in Baghuz, Syria in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

There is a perception among many northern Syrians that segments of region’s Sunni Arab population are now more religiously conservative after living years under Islamic State, so the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has instituted an ambitious education campaign to break down what they see is a toxic mixture of Sunni Arab chauvinism and Assadist authoritarianism.

“For 50 years this region was indoctrinated with the racism of Arab nationalism under the Baath party,” Bali said. Sectarianism, officials say, is ingrained in the Syrian constitution, legal code, and culture.

“This generation must learn and be raised [knowing] there are others such as Kurds, others such as Syriacs, others such as Christians, and it’s their right to live like you,” Bali said.

“Hussein and Mu’awiya,” early Islamic figures associated with the roots of the Sunni-Shia split, “are gone,” Bali said. “They’re dead. We need to learn how to live together.”

They will need to proceed cautiously.

The PYD’s social policies have already incurred protest in some majority-Arab areas, such as Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. Their enforcement of mandatory conscription for men and moves against political opponents have earned them some detractors among the Kurdish population.

“Every new project is met with violent reaction,” Bali told me. Nonetheless, officials say they are confident Syria’s disparate sects will embrace their stated goal of secular democratic confederalism – and a society in which women wield significant authority – once properly exposed to it.

“Society needs to breathe the oxygen of life,” Bali said. “The educational system can rescue future generations from war, from sectarian war.”

“We want to remove the barriers between nationalisms and religions,” Xelil said.

“We’re seeing a lot of progress … but we still need much time.”

They may not have it.

‘Multiple parties, not multiple armies’

The Pentagon’s reassuring gestures to the SDF belie the deeper crisis: that American diplomats have not yet found a force sufficient to replace the more than 2,000 U.S. troops maintaining stability in the north.

Nor have they found an appropriate force to man the Turkish border. Nor have they made northern Syrian officials any promises.

A residual presence of a few hundred American troops is not remotely adequate to accomplish either, former U.S. defense and national security officials say.

Syria-Turkey borderThe Syria-Turkey border in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

Northern Syrian officials have called for an international force for border protection against Turkey, and continue to receive sympathetic reassurances from the French and British.

But the Europeans say they cannot commit to a mission not led by a sizeable U.S. force. Even if American officials could wheedle Trump up to leaving, say, 1,000 residual troops, they still appear not to have an exit strategy to offer their western allies.

James Jeffrey, Washington’s pointman on the crisis, downplayed the dilemma last Friday.

“We’re not really looking to a coalition being peacekeepers or anything like that … We’re asking coalition personnel to continue to contribute and to up their D-ISIS operations, and we’re getting a pretty good response initially,” Jeffrey said.

James JeffreyUS Ambassador James F. Jeffrey swears in as Special Representative for Syria Engagement, at the US Department of State on August 17, 2018. Image: US State Dept/Ron Przysucha

Meanwhile, Jeffrey’s team is seeking local Syrian forces to guard the border in order to “meet everybody’s needs.”

So far that has proven elusive. Turkey rejects any YPG presence on the border, a position Jeffrey endorsed last week. “We don’t want another Qandil in Syria,” Jeffrey said, referring to the PKK headquarters in northern Iraq.

“We need defense against Turkey, not the other way around,” a northern Syrian source with knowledge of the discussions said.

Publicly, officials from the SDF’s political arm, the Syrian Democratic Council, say they believe Jeffrey’s team is working on their behalf, and that they can understand the U.S.’s strategic concerns as Turkey flirts with Moscow.

Privately, there are frustrations. Jeffrey is perceived as ingratiating to an erratic and duplicitous supposed NATO ally using the YPG issue as a political steam-valve.

Indeed the American team appears to be waiting out Turkey’s regional elections, set for March 31, to plan the next move.

The friction may well be mutual. Northern Syrian officials reject the veteran diplomat’s proposals to bring in at least two exiled Syrian militia forces, the Rojava Peshmerga and the Syrian Elite Forces (the latter affiliated with Syrian opposition leader Ahmed Jarba), to secure the Turkish border.

“Not possible,” Xelil told me. “First of all, Jarba doesn’t have the forces. Secondly, to those who liberated this region and administrate it, there’s no place for Jarba in this whole project. Where did this come from? It’s not possible.”

The Elite Forces’ brief cooperation with and integration into the SDF in 2016 and 2017 was seen as a political win for the Kurdish-led administration, but they fell out during the battle of Raqqa in 2017.

The Rojava Peshmerga is aligned with the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Syria, a political rival of the PYD closely linked to its namesake in Iraq.

“The [Rojava] Peshmerga,” Xelil said, “is a red line.” He accuses the force of being trained and funded by Turkey. “How can we trust them?”

Importing rival forces with unclear allegiances will only complicate matters, northern Syrian officials said, at a time when the SDF is striving to unify its own various components.

“Democracy means multiple parties, not multiple armies,” the source said.

“We don’t see this as in the best interest of North and East Syria’s security,” the source said, speaking to The Defense Post on the condition of anonymity.

The American team is set to discuss its “initial concept,” whatever that may be, with Turkish officials any day now.

“After this is agreed upon, then we can discuss the details,” Xelil said.

In the meantime, they have instructed northern Syrian officials not to engage with the Assad regime, a difficult seat to take.

Rebuilding Syria

Even if the U.S. can cut a deal for additional forces, the Autonomous Administration must still confront near-Sisyphean tasks.

Much of Syria’s north lies in ruins from eight years of war, and there is no coherent plan to rebuild.

Trump unilaterally cancelled $230 million set aside for the endeavor last year. The president wants the rest of the Coalition to foot the bill, and U.S. officials say the $230 million has been replaced by pledges from Gulf nations. But the city of Raqqa, which was largely destroyed by Coalition airstrikes, alone needs some $5 billion, the city’s mayor said last autumn.

Apartment buildings near February 23 Street, Raqqa, SyriaApartment buildings near February 23 Street, Raqqa, Syria, July 25, 2018. Image: Gernas Maao/The Defense Post

Incidentally, the Saudis asked the U.S. government if Trump’s December withdrawal announcement meant they were off the financial hook (Trump’s subsequent tweet made it clear they were not).

The northern administration’s domestic legitimacy rests heavily on its ability to fight ISIS. With the caliphate gone, people will be looking for a return to normalcy.

“The SDF bring great security but it can still be hard to get basic goods. The situation is much better now than before, but we need help,” said Hassan, a shopkeeper in Tal Abyad.

Civilians who spoke to The Defense Post in Hasakah, Manbij, and other areas of northern Syria echoed similar sentiments. Whatever their opinions of the SDF, they feared the American withdrawal.

“We’re still living in a state of war,” Xelil said. “We need a number of services to be rebuilt. We’re deficient in municipal services, electricity, food distribution, healthcare. Syria in general is crushed.”

“The services in some other areas may be better, but our ambition is stronger,” Xelil said.

SDC officials have elicited the technical support of the Syrian regime in limited projects, but full reconstruction depends on a political settlement to the civil war.

And the Americans appear unwilling to offer that, likely in deference to Ankara’s long-standing opposition to the SDC’s participation in the U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Geneva.

“We need doors open for our participation in political operations,” a source with knowledge of the discussions told The Defense Post, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the matter.

Lack of reconstruction is a serious long-term security threat, former U.S. officials said.

Raqqa Internal Security ForceA Raqqa Internal Security Force member guards an entrance to a courtyard in Raqqa, Syria, February 19, 2018. Image: US Army/Sgt. Travis Jones

In Deir Ezzor, especially, tribal grievances linger from the ISIS war and the destruction of the local oil economy by Coalition bombing.

“There is animosity towards the Kurds in some Arab areas for what is perceived as heavy-handed ​governance or the inequitable sharing of power and resources,” said Alexander Bick, who was Syria director in Barack Obama’s National Security Council.

“That’s a fairly combustible situation. Certainly something the Defense Department is well aware of, and has tried to address by pushing the SDF to be more inclusive, but there aren’t perfect solutions to it – particularly in the absence of resources, which this administration has decided not to put in.”

US support for the YPG

In retrospect, former U.S. officials who spoke to The Defense Post say roots of today’s crisis were sown from the beginning.

On the one hand, aligning with the YPG’s tactical goals has borne perhaps the most successful U.S. Special Forces train-and-assist mission to date.

But American officials ignored the gap between their and the YPG’s strategic goals for years, an oversight that now threatens to leave one of the world’s most vulnerable populations in what appears to be an intractable geostrategic crisis.

YPJ fighter in RaqqaA YPJ fighter in Raqqa, Syria, October 2017. Image: YPJ/Twitter

Still, officials say, the decision to arm and support the YPG was not made lightly.

“They were problematic from a number of different angles,” a former official said, not simply for their roots in the PKK, which Turkey and its western allies have designated a terrorist organization.

For the Americans, however, the alternative was to accept a Turkish proposal to utilize Arab rebels “without even being shown evidence that these groups existed in sufficient numbers, organization, training to actually carry that out.”

The YPG was undoubtedly the most adept ground force available in northern Syria. And, two former officials said, its secular ideology proved an appealing antidote to the region’s toxic sectarianism.

“There are 20 million Sunni Arabs between Baghdad and Damascus who in important respects lack meaningful political representation in either country,” Bick said.

“So as long as this persists, we can and should expect radicalism to reemerge down the road.”

It was American planners who pushed a reluctant YPG to capture vast Arab-majority territories in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor.

“I think everybody [in Washington] recognized at the time that you didn’t want to be trying to govern large swaths of territory with Kurdish forces that would be perceived as outsiders,” Bick explained.

“We didn’t want a situation, strategically, where we’d be relying … exclusively on the Kurds.”

Hence the “snowball” method: As the YPG took territory, it absorbed local factions into a “professional coalition” – the Syrian Democratic Forces.

The challenge for the Obama administration was how to leverage the YPG’s military and organizational abilities against ISIS while ensuring that the burgeoning alliance was constituted in a way that would minimize intercommunal tensions after the war.

“We worried about all of those issues,” Bick said.

“The question is not was the choice perfect, but what were the other choices?”

“Did we think about it? Yes. Did we come up with a satisfactory answer to it? No,” he said.

“Did we think that getting ISIS out was a sufficiently important priority for the United States that we would, to some extent, have to fly the plane as we built it? Yes.”

The consequences of that decision have come home to roost. Turkey’s position on the YPG shifted fiercely after the U.S. in 2016 pushed the group to capture from ISIS the majority-Arab city of Manbij, near the Turkish border.

“It’s probably the most complex security situation, fighting situation I’ve seen in over four decades of dealing with – with fights,” then Defense Secretary James Mattis said in February 2018 when asked about Turkey’s position on Manbij.

“And it is one where I believe we are finding common ground and there are areas of uncommon ground where sometimes war just gives you bad alternatives to choose from.”

US and Turkey conduct joint patrol near Manbij, SyriaUS and Turkish forces conduct a convoy during a joint combined patrol near Manbij, Syria, November 8, 2018. image: US Army/Spc. Zoe Garbarino

The U.S. did not have a coherent Syria policy until at least early 2018 – a year into Trump’s presidency – a former official with knowledge of the matter said.

“As the terrain changed, they moved … You end up at a place based on one decision, one decision, one more,” the official told The Defense Post on the condition of anonymity.

“There were people saying, ‘We can stop this anytime we want.’ No, you can’t,” the former official said. “If you go in here and you start doing this, you own this problem.”

The Trump administration finally pronounced a Syria plan to Congress in January 2018, after the SDF had largely captured the country’s north.

American troops would continue to occupy the country’s resource-rich territories while the Treasury Department would economically isolate the Syrian regime to bring Assad to the Geneva negotiating table, David Satterfield, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told a baffled senators in a chaotic hearing.

Just five weeks later, Trump began suggesting it was about time to pull the plug. In his December phone call with Erdogan, he tanked the whole policy.

“No prom queen aspires to be a crack whore. But some end up there through incremental bad decision-making,” the former official said.

Efrîn bernadin

With or without the Americans, the war is not over for the SDF.

Back in Baghuz, I caught one of Salaheddin’s young recruits in the stairwell of the safe house and asked what comes next for him after this battle.

He responded excitedly, “I’ll go to Efrin.”

I felt a bolt of sympathy for the kid. “You’re from Efrin?” He looked no older than 19.

He glanced over my shoulder, smile intact. “No, I’m from the graveyard of ISIS.” Kobane.

Bombs hit Efrin, SyriaA plume of smoke rises near a village after bombs were dropped by aircraft as Turkey’s military began Operation Olive Branch against the Kurd-controlled Efrin region in Syria, January 20, 2018. Image: trthaber/Twitter

“We’ll go wherever the revolution is needed,” said a European YPJ volunteer, who gave her name as Cude, later that afternoon on the roof.

“We will take back Efrin, we will keep our liberated area and when we are finished with Rojava, we will liberate all the other oppressed areas,” she proudly told me.

No decision to widen operations against Turkey-backed Islamist rebels in Efrin has yet been made, Xelil emphasized. But covert operations and military preparations, he said, are “always being made.”

The SDF declared in February that, though it prefers dialogue with Turkey, it intends to retake Efrin and facilitate the return of its population in the post-ISIS stage.

Efrin is surrounded, Xelil said, and Russian and Syrian regime troops have been interdicting attempted YPG deployments, so any future operations depend in part on those actors.

“I think the end of Baghuz and military victory over ISIS will greatly ease matters regarding Efrin,” Xelil said.

The Americans reportedly censured the YPG for its insurgency tactics there in late 2018.

How the YPG’s ambitions may impact U.S. efforts to make nice between their partner force and NATO ally to the north was of little concern, Xelil said.

Baghuz, SyriaBaghuz, Syria after it was deserted by thousands of ISIS fighters and their families in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

Northern Syrian leaders expressed profound gratitude for the support of the Americans, but Xelil said Efrin was their decision to make.

“If [the Americans] get involved, we’ll say why didn’t you get involved when Turkey attacked us?”

In Baghuz, SDF fighters were of the same mind. “If America leaves, nothing changes. We will resist,” Cude said. It was a uniform refrain.

“No one asked [the Americans] to come, no one will ask them to stay,” she said, adding, “I don’t know who to trust less, Trump or Erdogan or Putin.”

Asked if she was prepared to fight the Turkish Army or the Syrian regime, she hesitated. “I don’t know. If it’s necessary? Yeah.”

She was hopeful that a deal with Damascus would secure the north’s autonomy.

“You cannot make war all the time. You must make compromises sometimes,” she said.

Without the Americans, “it’s going to be harder, [but] we will fight until the end.”

“If we lose, we will lose fighting. There can be no surrender.”

SDF fighters in eastern SyriaSDF fighters near Baghuz, Syria in March 2019. Image: Jared Szuba for The Defense Post

Around midnight, back at al-Omar oilfield, some 50 miles north across the desert from Baghuz, I hunched over the embers of a dying campfire.

Two SDF fighters emerged from the darkness and sat next to me. One placed a tin pot on the coals to boil coffee, and offered me some.

The pair chatted in Kurdish for a while. Then one stood up from his chair, walked to a nearby pickup truck, and plugged his smartphone into the audio system.

A haunting Kurdish song played, one I had heard before on the road to Deir Ezzor. I asked what the words meant.

He was silent for nearly a minute, then said in Arabic, “Bombing of villages in Qandil. Turkey, about 15 years ago,” he said.

“For no reason,” he added.

We sat for several minutes in silence. One fighter rose, said goodnight, and walked away.

After some time I asked the other if he thought the Americans would stay. ”They’ll stay. They reversed the decision,” he said.

“But if you go to Efrin, won’t that make the Americans’ diplomatic efforts harder?”

He let out a long drag of his cigarette with a sigh. “God, I don’t know.” He extended his legs and planted the heels of his combat boots at the edge of the fire.

The song ended, and the officer tossed back the last of his coffee. He stood up, and took his phone from the truck.

“Sleep well. Hope to see you again.”

“Inshahallah,” I answered.

He took several paces towards the barracks then stopped. “Inshahallah after Efrin.”

American artillery thudded flatly in the distance.

JARED SZUBA

ISIS’s ‘caliphate’ was crushed. Now Syria’s Kurd-led alliance faces bigger battles